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2010-05-12T14:52:00.001-07:00

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1647 GMT [Dow Jones] CitiFx says the key result of the actions in Europe are that credit risks associated with holding the debt of the periphery of Europe are no longer what they were last week. " bottom line is that if you held Greek paper last week you were exposed to the risk of a Greek default. Now your exposure is to Europe, as that Greek paper is effectively backed by the other governments of the Eurozone," it says. "This is a major step towards getting to the heart of the problem in Europe...a single European bond market," Citi says. If successful, it will be a major part of strengthening EUR as a serious global reserve currency, it adds. (don.curren@dowjones.com)

The Spanish economy, for all its troubles, came out of the recession last quarter, according to the Bank of Spain (PDF), with the country’s gross domestic product posting growth of 0.1 percent on the previous quarter and ending an 18-month contraction, shrinking 3.6 percent last year.

Spain needed some good news, after announcing last week that unemployment figures had surpassed 20 percent. But the bank report highlighted the fragility of the recovery, saying the impact of certain stimulus measures — like those encouraging household spending — was diminishing.

The figures were released a day after Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the European Central Bank, met his fellow bank governors in Lisbon. The countries of the Iberian peninsula have caused significant worry — alongside Greece — because of their debt burdens and slow growth.

While all members of the euro zone have to address their economic prospects together, “Portugal and Greece are not in the same boat,” Mr. Trichet said at a press conference.

He added that the longer the government postponed decisive measures, the greater the risks it would run — but he denied that Greece (and by extension any other euro zone member), would default, a certainty that is not held by the markets. (Mr. Trichet also gave a speech at the University of Lisbon, outlining his vision for the role of finance, that bugbear, in the real economy.)

Portugal’s troubles are large enough to lead its most important daily, Diario de Noticias, to interview two former finance ministers about the possibility and consequences of leaving the euro (the answers were “small,” and “huge,” respectively). The ex-ministers evoked a bankruptcy similar to Iceland’s, if the country exited the single currency.

While Lisbon wants to count on growth to end all doubts about its credit quality, Peter Boone and Simon Johnson, who write for the Times’s Economix blog as well as their own Web site, The Baseline Scenario, argue that Portugal should restructure its borrowings preemptively, rather than go through the tumult of a Greeklike scenario, which you might call, well, a fate worse than debt.

Go to Statement from Bank of Spain (PDF) »

Go to Item from The Baseline Scenario »

Go to Article from Diario de Noticias (in Portuguese) »

Go to Related Article from The New York Times »

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2010-05-12T13:40:00.001-07:00

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Still, the move supplied the decisiveness – and the big headline – the markets had been craving. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 405 points to close at 10,785 – its biggest gain since March 2009 – and recouped two-thirds of last week's losses. At its peak Monday, the Dow was up nearly 455 points.

Broader U.S. indexes outpaced the Dow's 3.9 percent rise, while gains in several European markets topped 9 percent.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 48.85, or 4.4 percent, to 1,159.73. The Nasdaq composite index rose 109.03, or 4.8 percent, to 2,374.67.

The euro bounced back from 14-month lows around $1.25 on Friday to over $1.30 on Monday, reversing the ominous slides and sense of panic from last week.

The crisis had raised fears of a panic like the one following the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers in 2008 and prompted nervous banks to cut back on lending to businesses and hammered stock markets.

A weaker euro and financial and economic disaster in Europe would hurt U.S. exports, and the U.S. Federal Reserve pitched in by agreeing to make dollars available to the European Central Bank in exchange for euros. The ECB will then loan those dollars at fixed rates to banks in Europe; the interest eventually goes to the Fed when it swaps the euros back for dollars at the same exchange rate as the original transaction.

European banks need dollars to lend to companies across the continent. European companies with operations in the U.S. pay their employees in dollars and buy raw materials with the U.S. currency. Also, oil and other commodities are priced in dollars around the world.

But because of the debt crisis, private banks in the U.S. have been leery of making loans to banks in Europe. Hence the need for the currency swaps between the central banks.

Analysts warned, however, that the emergency bailout fund would do nothing to reverse Europe's soaring public debt – and could even worsen it.

"The last thing you give a drunk is another drink," said Jeremy Batstone-Carr of Charles Stanley stockbrokers.

"The process of providing a bridging facility for Greece and possibly other indebted nations will add significantly to regional debt and deficit ratios without actually solving the underlying problem."

EU officials said the next step was to more closely coordinate member nations' economies, including tougher rules to keep them from running up too much debt. The eurozone has a limit on deficits of 3 percent of gross domestic product, but that was widely ignored.

"The key missing pieces ... are steps to strengthen fiscal discipline and structural reforms," said economist Annunziata. "I remain skeptical on this front, as greater fiscal integration at this stage requires deeper political integration."

Still, he noted, some experts argue the "current crisis is exactly what was needed to trigger a new quantum leap in European integration. I hope that turns out to be the case."

European Union President Herman Van Rompuy said European governments need to consider pooling their national powers and create a joint economic government.

"We can't have a monetary union without some form of economic and political union and that is our big task for the coming weeks and the coming months," he said.

He said he would draft tougher rules for EU leaders to discuss in October that go beyond current EU limits on debt and deficit.

The core problem is near-zero economic growth, high unemployment and governments unwilling to take painful steps to get people to work more and longer.

Simon Tilford, an economist at the Center for European Reform think tank, warned that EU governments so far haven't come up with anything "game changing."

"What Europe needs is a growth pact because without growth, public finances aren't going to be sustainable," Tilford said. "The bond markets are going to be forcing them to make those kind of changes."

Even EU president Van Rompuy warned that the bloc risks irrelevance and the end of its expensive welfare programs if it can't speed up economic growth, forecast to expand by just 1 percent this year.

"With 1 percent growth we can't finance our social model any more. With 1 percent structural growth we can't play a role in the world," he told the World Economic Forum in Brussels. "We need to double the economic growth potential that we now have."

Many are skeptical that can be achieved.

Jennifer McKeown, senior European economist at Capital Economics, said the rescue package won't stop euro economies like Greece, Portugal and Spain from suffering "a long period of extreme economic weakness" and won't erase fears of a default or collapse of the euro.

"We still see the euro weakening further to around $1.20 by the end of this year," she said.

Others worried over the prospect of EU policymakers stepping away from the strict rules that underpin the euro.

Marc Ostwald, a market strategist at Monument Securities, said Monday's rewriting of the rule book "in just a couple of hours" could foreshadow "a lot more in the way of absolute risk priced into government bond yields."

The European Central Bank's agreement to buy government bonds also spurred concern that it had caved in to political pressure, ironically weakening a key euro institution in order to save the currency.

"It will be hard not to see this as a loss of credibility and independence for the ECB," Annunziata said.

Commerzbank economist Michael Schubert said the rescue could spur irresponsible behavior by other eurozone nations if they know there's a bailout when they overspend.

Dutch bank NIBC said in a research note that the only long-term solution for countries like Greece was an eventual debt restructuring – the polite term for a technical default, with lenders unlikely to receive anywhere close to the full value of their loans to the government.

___

AP Business writers Pan Pylas in London and Christopher S. Rugaber in Washington and Associated Press writers Frank Jordans in Basel and Matt Moore in Frankfurt contributed to this report.

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The only trouble is that Spain, Portugal, and Greece are currently governed by left-wing socialist governments, not "right-wing" dictators or military regimes. What's more, the Socialists trounced the center-right in the most recent Greek elections in October 2009 in part because the conservatives were politically unpopular for pushing for an austerity package aimed at getting the country's fiscal house in order. From a New York Times article at the time:

In conceding defeat, Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis said he had failed to persuade Greeks to accept the two years of austerity measures he had called for to steer the country out of its economic crisis. “The voters did not approve of this policy. It was their choice, and I respect it,” he said.
Mr. Karamanlis also stepped down as leader of the New Democracy Party, which suffered its worst performance since the restoration of Greek democracy in 1974 after years of military dictatorship. He said he would call a party congress to elect a new leader within a month.
Mr. Karamanlis, 53, called early elections last month, two years into a mandate dogged by corruption scandals and economic crisis, aiming to win a fresh mandate and stave off labor unrest. He had called for a freeze in public-sector wages to fight rising debt and unemployment, but he had difficulty pushing through important economic and structural reforms because he governed with a one-vote margin in Parliament.
Mr. Papandreou, 57, instead favored increased spending, including a $4.5 billion stimulus package to revive the Greek economy though infrastructure projects and environmentally sustainable development, while cracking down on tax evasion. Experts estimate that Greece loses $17.5 billion annually in unpaid income taxes and $13 billion in unpaid payroll taxes.
The victory by the Socialists here was a rare event for Europe, where the left has been losing ground and has often been unable to capitalize on the financial crisis for its own political gain.
But many Greek voters appeared to be voting against Mr. Karamanlis as much as for the Socialists. After two decades of Socialist rule, Mr. Karamanlis was elected in 2004 promising to restore faith in government.

For his part, Cramer failed to correct Matthews, agreeing with Matthews that:

You have a currency [the euro] that's made up of [countries run by] profligate right-wingers non-profligate, actually prudent somewhat left-wingers. I'm talking about Germany. Germany is the rock bed here.

Germany is governed by a center-right coalition led by conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel.

—Ken Shepherd is Managing Editor of NewsBusters. You can follow him on Twitter here

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Apple have confirmed that preordered iPad WiFi + 3G units should arrive with buyers on April 30th, though the company’s online store currently lists a May 7th expected delivery date. The press release also says that Apple’s retail stores should have stock of the WWAN-enabled iPad in, though not until 5pm on the 30th.

As with the WiFi-only models, there will be three versions of WiFi + 3G iPad. Starting price is $629 for the 16GB iPad – a $130 premium over the non-3G – while 32GB and 64GB units will be $729 and $829. 3G service itself is provide by AT&T in the US, with 250MB for $14.99 and unlimited data for $29.99 per month.

Interestingly there’s no minimum contract and activation/management is all handled on the iPad itself. For more on the iPad, check out the full SlashGear review.

[via Everything iPad]

Press Release:

iPad Wi-Fi + 3G Models Available in US on April 30

CUPERTINO, Calif., April 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — Apple® today announced that the Wi-Fi + 3G models of its magical iPad(TM) will be delivered to US customers who’ve pre-ordered on Friday, April 30, and will be available in Apple retail stores the same day starting at 5:00 p.m.

iPad allows users to connect with their apps and content in a more intimate, intuitive and fun way than ever before. Users can browse the web, read and send email, enjoy and share photos, watch HD videos, listen to music, play games, read ebooks and much more, all using iPad’s revolutionary Multi-Touch(TM) user interface. iPad Wi-Fi + 3G models are just 0.5 inches thick and weigh just 1.6 pounds–thinner and lighter than any laptop or netbook–and deliver up to 10 hours of battery life for surfing the web on Wi-Fi, watching videos or listening to music, and up to nine hours of surfing the web using a 3G data network.*

Apple retail stores will offer a free Personal Setup service to every customer who buys an iPad at the store, helping them customize their new iPad by setting up their email, loading their favorite apps from the App Store, and more. US Apple retail stores are also hosting special iPad workshops to help customers learn more about this magical new product.

Pricing & Availability

iPad is available in Wi-Fi models in the US for a suggested retail price of $499 for 16GB, $599 for 32GB and $699 for 64GB. The Wi-Fi + 3G models will be available on April 30 in the US for a suggested retail price of $629 for 16GB, $729 for 32GB and $829 for 64GB. iPad is sold in the US through the Apple Store® (www.apple.com), Apple’s retail stores, most Best Buy stores, select Apple Authorized Resellers and campus bookstores. AT&T is offering breakthrough 3G pre-paid data plans for iPad with easy, on-device activation and management.

iPad will be available at the end of May in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Switzerland and the UK. Apple will announce international pricing and begin taking online pre-orders for iPad on May 10.

*Battery life depends on device settings, usage and other factors. Actual results vary.

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